Times / Populus poll

A tongue in cheek view of the poll is that it shows Labour starting to recover from the low point of last week's elections. At 30% they are a point or so higher and at 38% the Tories a couple of points lower. But of course what it really demonstrates that, within their 3% margin of error, this is an accurate poll.

Sometimes it seems to me that getting accurate results from asking 1,500 people how they will vote to predict how 12 - 34 million people will vote is a bit depressing. Perhaps we don't all have as much free will as we think and are merely herd animals. If I were French I would write a philosophical piece about this thought. But I'm not so I'll just remind you that they chose the 1,500 or so people with great care.

The message to Labour supporters must be 'don't panic'. With 37 months to go until the likely date of the next general election and nearly 48 until it must be held, there's plenty of time to recover. The Tories are nowhere near the 45% comfort zone they would need to be on at this stage of the election cycle to be confident of victory.....