Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Times / Populus poll

A tongue in cheek view of the poll is that it shows Labour starting to recover from the low point of last week's elections. At 30% they are a point or so higher and at 38% the Tories a couple of points lower. But of course what it really demonstrates that, within their 3% margin of error, this is an accurate poll.

Sometimes it seems to me that getting accurate results from asking 1,500 people how they will vote to predict how 12 - 34 million people will vote is a bit depressing. Perhaps we don't all have as much free will as we think and are merely herd animals. If I were French I would write a philosophical piece about this thought. But I'm not so I'll just remind you that they chose the 1,500 or so people with great care.

The message to Labour supporters must be 'don't panic'. With 37 months to go until the likely date of the next general election and nearly 48 until it must be held, there's plenty of time to recover. The Tories are nowhere near the 45% comfort zone they would need to be on at this stage of the election cycle to be confident of victory.....


At 10:23, Blogger Elephunt said...

No panic but certainly a warning that the public are losing patience with the government and are prepared to punish us in the polling booth. At moments like this you either raise your game or perish..

At 12:16, Blogger Aidan Brack said...

The Brown-Blair differences are the most interesting. On those figures Brown would lead to a Conservative win according to election calculus. Blair's result would lead to a hung parliament.

I think as well it suggests that Blair gets Gordon's supporters on board but Gordon will lose Blair's. It seems he doesn't just need cosmetical changes to run the party - he's going to need them to retain the country.

At 22:31, Blogger Hughes Views said...

Aidan, the Brown questions produced some interesting answers although I'm always a bit wary of hypothetical questions. I expect him to be more popular as a leader than he is as Chancellor. If not Labour will be in trouble.

Elephunt, it all seems so unfair! Labour is still delivering loadsa good stuff but tasks like transforming the NHS seem to produce only bad headlines. Any organisation undergoing as much change as it is (partly because it stopped evolving for 18 years) is bound to suffer pain. I know I worked for one until it chucked me out! Let's hope the present position is just standard mid-term blues......


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