Saturday, October 21, 2006

More gloom for Cameron as Labour majority predicted

Martin Baxter has fed the latest opinion poll results into his Electoral Calculus machine, turned the handle and now predicts a Labour majority slightly bigger than the ones Harold Wilson got in 1964 and 1974.

Even allowing for margins of error in the polls and the calculations, this is an astonishingly good result for a government not yet halfway through its third term of office. The wheels really do seem to have come off David Cameron’s ‘policy-lite’ campaign.

For Gloucestershire, Electoral Calculus is predicting that Labour will hold Gloucester (good) but that the Tories will take Cheltenham (not bad) and Stroud (very bad). I think Stroud may be winnable though because there was a large protest vote there in 2005 which split between the Greens (who, it is said, were helped by Zac Goldsmith, now one of Mr Cameron’s inner circle) and the Lib Dems. With the real prospect of a Nasty Party MP again (their last was the charming Roger Knapman now of UKIP), I hope the good people of the valleys may come to their senses.

But Electoral Calculus still shows Birmingham Ladywood as currently a Labour hold, surely it will be a Labour gain?!


At 20:57, Blogger skipper said...

Agree the Tory toffs conspiracy should be looking a bit better than it does right now. Maybe voters are not as stupid as I sometimes think they are.

At 10:18, Blogger Hughes Views said...

There is some evidence that IQ levels are rising. Perhaps all the bone headed instinctive Tory voters are being replaced as they die off with people who can think and who aren't quite so scared of change.

How ironic if things such as TV and computer games, which bone headed doomsayers told us would dull young people's minds, have actually helped do the opposite (for which there is also some evidence)...


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